The Tower of Babel, Take 2009
I’ve read once, somewhere - and for once, pardon me if I don’t hyperlink - that it takes a person about 10 years to become an expert in something. If you’re a concert pianist, for example, you’re supposed to have amassed over 10,000 hours of practice by the time you reach 20. If you’re a C++ programmer, it usually takes about 10 years before you become a guru. I’ve been studying physics for 10 years now, and I sort of get it. I’ve been doing magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy for the past five, and I’m beginning to get the hang of it. I’m not really an expert yet, nor do I know what I’ll do in the future, so I might never become one.
My point is, everybody has an opinion about everything. We judge people the moment they walk into a room. We make snide remarks about people we see on the news. We take sides in wars, both real and political. Is second hand smoke that bad for you? Global warming - fiction or fact? Iraq, Iran, nuclear power, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the economy, presidential elections, alternative energy sources - I’m starting to sound like Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire”. But the truth is we know so little about these things we’re so quick to judge that I’m really becoming skeptical as time goes by that the human race is even capable of making informed decisions of any kind.
Seriously, take global warming. On the one hand you’ve got Al Gore with his movies, on the other hand you have plenty of talks - some on Youtube, some on other blogs, some right out in the open on Wikipedia. Who’s right? I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle on many issues. To say to what extent Al Gore exaggerates, and more importantly what are the implications of his exaggerations, takes a lifetime of expertise on the subject. I’ve been attending scientific lectures on the topic from time to time and I’m still more confused than knowledgeable. I don’t know much except what I’m spoonfed, and I’m guessing policy makers don’t know much either. Even scientists in the field debate the meaning of the data. What are the prospects of an educated layperson such as myself of figuring out who’s right and who’s not? In fact, it’s not wrong versus right most of the time. Those questions are easy. It’s how wrong and how right. It’s understanding which factors are important and which aren’t when analyzing the problem. That is usually the pursuit of a lifetime.
It doesn’t help that the information the public is being handed is filtered through so many layers: politicians who bend the truth and dubious journalists who don’t understand what they’re talking about. But the alarming bottom line is, I think, not the filters, but the inability of a person to make a rational, evidence-based decision about the things that really affect his/her life. This is because there’s so much information that the time it would take me to understand a particular topic in-depth is just too long. And if most of us can’t understand what the experts are saying about, say, global warming, I’d say we have a bit of a communications problem.
The solution? There isn’t any. I think humility is part of it, though. Being good at what you do and teaching and informing others is another such thing; we’re all experts (or budding experts) at our own fields. Instilling general problem solving strategies is yet another (like, ahem, some blog I know of does). But my solution is to simply pick a particular topic you’re passionate about and learn it through and through. Is it global warming that bothers you? Buy every book there is. Go to every lecture. Read every blog. Go bug scientists at the nearest university. Never form an opinion - just collect the evidence, and eventually the opinions will form by themselves. Pick an idea, just one, that really means something to you, not just a fancy politically (in)correct one, and approach it humbly without any bias. Don’t be a greedy whore. You don’t have to have an opinon about everything. It’s not the end of the world if you say I Don’t Know; in fact, it just might make it better.
I don’t think that politicians or business persons want us to understand anything. They’d rather create confusion so that they can manipulate us. Look at the 401(k) program which moved responsibility for financial management from someone who was payed to do it to the average person who has no idea how to manage their long term investments. Sure that person has incentive to maximize their return, but who has the time and knowledge (and insider information) to really do that? It created an industry where people could use our own money to take advantage of us and is part of the current financial crisis. Now they want to do this with health care? Ugh.
Sure, lack of communication serves some people just fine - parasites who take advantage of the confusion of others. Unfortunately we can’t fight all the battles on all the fronts. Some times politicians and businessmen will make the wrong decisions - either on purpose or out of ignorance.
What I am saying, though, is that you should get involved in one or two things that you care dearly about, and the first step to doing so is to get all the facts straight, which is something people rarely do (go to a global warming protest - most of them are scientifically ignorant and can’t even explain why global warming occurs, or what the greenhouse effect is). This will make the parasites’ lives just a bit harder. And, yes, I agree with you, financial long term investment decisions should definitely be left in the hands of trained individuals who have a much better chance than you and me of getting it right!